Unstable Political Regimes and Wars as Drivers of International Migration
U Institutu za istočno- i jugoistočnoeuropske studije u Regensburgu (6.VII.2017) Martin Guzi održat će predavanje o uzrocima međunarodnih migracija u povijesnoj i suvremenoj perspektivi.
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Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung
Regensburg
Unstable Political Regimes and Wars as Drivers of International Migration
Ein Vortrag von Martin Guzi (Masaryk University, Brno) im Rahmen der Seminarreihe des AB Ökonomie am IOS.
Datum: 6. Juli 2017
Zeit: 13.30 Uhr
Ort: WiOS, Landshuter Str. 4 (Raum 109)
This paper contributes to literature on the determinants of international migration by focusing on whether migration flows respond to political conditions in origin and destination and to political violence, armed conflict and wars. Within standard migration theory, political instability acts as push factors in origins. We expect that people are more likely to emigrate from authoritarian regimes and origins affected by ethnic conflicts and wars in search for a better life. To investigate these hypotheses, we combine: (1) annual data on international migration flows and stocks in 42 destination countries from 223 countries of origin for the period 1980-2010 and UN/world Bank migration data obtained from changes in stocks of foreign population across (decennial) censuses from 160 origin/destinations; (2) data on wars, coup d’état, revolutions and democratic regimes from different sources; (3) controls of socio-cultural-economic conditions in origins and destinations, and political rights and naturalization regimes for the years 1965-2010. Preliminary findings confirm that political instability in the sending countries triggers the outflow of people and the effect of violence varies with the kind and intensity of war and internal conflicts. These outcomes are robust to the choice of indicators — particularly for long-lasting and high intense ethnic conflicts.